Hindsight 20/20

Home
Notes
Archive
About
Will Putin cross the Rubicon in Ukraine?
It looks increasingly likely that Donbas is where things will start. But will they end there?
 • 
Balkan Devlen
Update: Will Russia invade Ukraine, again?
It doesn’t look good and I am at 75% probability for an invasion.
 • 
Balkan Devlen
Will Russia invade Ukraine, again?
Military action is 70% likely but a proper ground invasion is 50/50
 • 
Balkan Devlen
8

October 2020

Will they stay or will they go?
Updates on prior forecasts about post-election US and the crisis in Belarus
 • 
Balkan Devlen
Probabilistic Foresight
What it is probabilistic foresight and how can we combine probabilistic forecasting and strategic foresight and have 80% of the benefits with 20% of the…
 • 
Balkan Devlen

September 2020

On Practical Wisdom and Uncertainty
...and some updates on the previous forecasts
 • 
Balkan Devlen

August 2020

The Four Fates of Lukashenko
Lukashescu, Lukanovych, Lukassad, or Lukaduro?
 • 
Balkan Devlen
1
What will Donald do?
The Coming Politico-Legal Crisis in the United States.
 • 
Balkan Devlen
5

July 2020

What is Hindsight 20/20
...and why you should read it?
 • 
Balkan Devlen
Hindsight is 20/20...
But you don't need to let that happen.
 • 
Balkan Devlen
© 2024 Balkan Devlen
Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start WritingGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture