Hindsight 20/20
Subscribe
Sign in
Home
Notes
Archive
About
Will Putin cross the Rubicon in Ukraine?
It looks increasingly likely that Donbas is where things will start. But will they end there?
Feb 18, 2022
•
Balkan Devlen
5
Share this post
Hindsight 20/20
Will Putin cross the Rubicon in Ukraine?
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Update: Will Russia invade Ukraine, again?
It doesn’t look good and I am at 75% probability for an invasion.
Feb 12, 2022
•
Balkan Devlen
4
Share this post
Hindsight 20/20
Update: Will Russia invade Ukraine, again?
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Will Russia invade Ukraine, again?
Military action is 70% likely but a proper ground invasion is 50/50
Feb 6, 2022
•
Balkan Devlen
7
Share this post
Hindsight 20/20
Will Russia invade Ukraine, again?
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
8
October 2020
Will they stay or will they go?
Updates on prior forecasts about post-election US and the crisis in Belarus
Oct 29, 2020
•
Balkan Devlen
2
Share this post
Hindsight 20/20
Will they stay or will they go?
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Probabilistic Foresight
What it is probabilistic foresight and how can we combine probabilistic forecasting and strategic foresight and have 80% of the benefits with 20% of the…
Oct 13, 2020
•
Balkan Devlen
Share this post
Hindsight 20/20
Probabilistic Foresight
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
September 2020
On Practical Wisdom and Uncertainty
...and some updates on the previous forecasts
Sep 15, 2020
•
Balkan Devlen
1
Share this post
Hindsight 20/20
On Practical Wisdom and Uncertainty
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
August 2020
The Four Fates of Lukashenko
Lukashescu, Lukanovych, Lukassad, or Lukaduro?
Aug 17, 2020
•
Balkan Devlen
1
Share this post
Hindsight 20/20
The Four Fates of Lukashenko
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
1
What will Donald do?
The Coming Politico-Legal Crisis in the United States.
Aug 5, 2020
•
Balkan Devlen
Share this post
Hindsight 20/20
What will Donald do?
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
5
July 2020
What is Hindsight 20/20
...and why you should read it?
Jul 28, 2020
•
Balkan Devlen
2
Share this post
Hindsight 20/20
What is Hindsight 20/20
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Hindsight is 20/20...
But you don't need to let that happen.
Jul 1, 2020
•
Balkan Devlen
2
Share this post
Hindsight 20/20
Hindsight is 20/20...
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
Share
Copy link
Facebook
Email
Notes
More
This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please
turn on JavaScript
or unblock scripts