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Kogo's avatar

Hi Balkan, Great analysis! From my point of view, everything you say makes sense. Question: is that the right point of view? Are either of us able to get inside Putin‘s head? What is the probability that his cost-benefit calculus is significantly different than what we Westerners think?

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Rosen's avatar

@Balkan, it is always a genuine intellectual delight to peruse your in-depth analyses. I particularly subscribe with one of the scenarios that your writing presents: most likely, it seems to me, that all sudden, unexpected moves will occur by means of the separatist troops, while the ''official army'' is training in the yard across the wall (not sure if there is a functional border though). In any case I hope that this will be a short attack that would not spread into a wider conflict.

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