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Hindsight 20/20
Analysis and commentary on uncertainty, foresight, and geopolitics.
By Balkan Devlen · Launched 2 years ago
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Will Putin cross the Rubicon in Ukraine?
It looks increasingly likely that Donbas is where things will start. But will they end there?
Balkan Devlen
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Will Putin cross the Rubicon in Ukraine?
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Update: Will Russia invade Ukraine, again?
It doesn’t look good and I am at 75% probability for an invasion.
Balkan Devlen
Feb 12
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Update: Will Russia invade Ukraine, again?
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Will Russia invade Ukraine, again?
Military action is 70% likely but a proper ground invasion is 50/50
Balkan Devlen
Feb 6
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Will Russia invade Ukraine, again?
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Will they stay or will they go?
Updates on prior forecasts about post-election US and the crisis in Belarus
Balkan Devlen
Oct 29, 2020
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Will they stay or will they go?
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Probabilistic Foresight
What it is probabilistic foresight and how can we combine probabilistic forecasting and strategic foresight and have 80% of the benefits with 20% of the…
Balkan Devlen
Oct 13, 2020
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Probabilistic Foresight
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On Practical Wisdom and Uncertainty
...and some updates on the previous forecasts
Balkan Devlen
Sep 15, 2020
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On Practical Wisdom and Uncertainty
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The Four Fates of Lukashenko
Lukashescu, Lukanovych, Lukassad, or Lukaduro?
Balkan Devlen
Aug 17, 2020
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The Four Fates of Lukashenko
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What will Donald do?
The Coming Politico-Legal Crisis in the United States.
Balkan Devlen
Aug 5, 2020
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What will Donald do?
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