It looks increasingly likely that Donbas is where things will start. But will they end there?
It doesn’t look good and I am at 75% probability for an invasion.
Military action is 70% likely but a proper ground invasion is 50/50
Updates on prior forecasts about post-election US and the crisis in Belarus
What it is probabilistic foresight and how can we combine probabilistic forecasting and strategic foresight and have 80% of the benefits with 20% of the…
...and some updates on the previous forecasts
Lukashescu, Lukanovych, Lukassad, or Lukaduro?
The Coming Politico-Legal Crisis in the United States.
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Hindsight 20/20