Hindsight 20/20 | Balkan Devlen | Substack

It looks increasingly likely that Donbas is where things will start. But will they end there?

New Top Community

It doesn’t look good and I am at 75% probability for an invasion.

Feb 12

Military action is 70% likely but a proper ground invasion is 50/50

Feb 6

Updates on prior forecasts about post-election US and the crisis in Belarus

Oct 29, 2020

What it is probabilistic foresight and how can we combine probabilistic forecasting and strategic foresight and have 80% of the benefits with 20% of the…

Oct 13, 2020

...and some updates on the previous forecasts

Sep 15, 2020

Lukashescu, Lukanovych, Lukassad, or Lukaduro?

Aug 17, 2020

The Coming Politico-Legal Crisis in the United States.

Aug 5, 2020

Hindsight 20/20

About Archive Authors Recommendations

#nojs-banner { position: fixed; bottom: 0; left: 0; padding: 16px 16px 16px 32px; width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background: red; color: white; font-family: -apple-system, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, "Apple Color Emoji", "Segoe UI Emoji", "Segoe UI Symbol"; font-size: 13px; line-height: 13px; } #nojs-banner a { color: inherit; text-decoration: underline; } This site requires JavaScript to run correctly. Please turn on JavaScript or unblock scripts