Hindsight 20/20

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Will Putin cross the Rubicon in Ukraine?
It looks increasingly likely that Donbas is where things will start. But will they end there?
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Balkan Devlen
Update: Will Russia invade Ukraine, again?
It doesn’t look good and I am at 75% probability for an invasion.
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Balkan Devlen
Will Russia invade Ukraine, again?
Military action is 70% likely but a proper ground invasion is 50/50
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Balkan Devlen
8
Will they stay or will they go?
Updates on prior forecasts about post-election US and the crisis in Belarus
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Balkan Devlen
Probabilistic Foresight
What it is probabilistic foresight and how can we combine probabilistic forecasting and strategic foresight and have 80% of the benefits with 20% of the…
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Balkan Devlen
On Practical Wisdom and Uncertainty
...and some updates on the previous forecasts
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Balkan Devlen
The Four Fates of Lukashenko
Lukashescu, Lukanovych, Lukassad, or Lukaduro?
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Balkan Devlen
1
What will Donald do?
The Coming Politico-Legal Crisis in the United States.
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Balkan Devlen
5
Hindsight 20/20
Hindsight 20/20
Turning hindsight into foresight. Mostly on geopolitics, forecasting, and AI.

Hindsight 20/20

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